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Business editor says this low-key women's fashion shift is a huge recession warning

The subtle signs are everywhere.

via Canva/Photos

Two women wearing bright colors.

When the economy is about to enter a recession, specific industries get the warning signs first. One of the big ones is advertising. When companies believe that a downturn is on the horizon, ad agencies often feel it first when their clients start pulling back their budgets. Another industry that can foretell a recession is the world of fashion. One of the significant changes the industry sees is when people's fashion sense changes from flamboyant to functional.

Which fashion trends show the U.S. is headed for a recession?

Bryce Gruber, a veteran commerce director for major North American publishers, believes that a recession is coming because of the changes she’s seen in advertising and women’s fashion. She predicts a recession is on the way because women are opting for shorter nails after long, glamorous nails have been all the rage.

@brycegruber

Honestly I’m happy about this one because the price of maintaining long nails has gotten way out of control 💅

"Do you know what's going to be trending by the end of the year? And I know it for a fact because the ad budgets were already spent and I sat in on a meeting about it last week,” Gruber said in a video with over six million views. “So the number one thing that I can see, and let me know if you agree, if you're already seeing it. Short nails. Short nails. Okay. That, like, big coffin, any look that everyone was obsessed with, the, like, long French manicures that were having a moment, like, a few months ago, that stuff is done.”

She added that she learned this from a meeting with a publisher who is “one of the biggest in North America and controls a lot of the information that is distributed to women between 25 and 45," she said. “Every major nail and beauty company, I mean the L'Oréals, the Revlons, all of them, they have already committed massive amounts of ad spend to this sort of short but nicely kept nail trend. You're going to see it everywhere, and honestly, I'm happy about it because it's easier and I can tell you if I can wash my dishes, I can do all the things with reasonable nails."

nails, short nails, pricess nails, woman's fashion, manicureA woman's hand with short nails. via Canva/Photos

The commenters saw the new trend as an indicator of the coming recession. "It’s called 'I can’t afford to get my nails done' trend," one commenter joked. "Aka recession indicator bc people can’t afford to spend $70+ on a full set anymore," another added.

The video is reminiscent of a recent viral hit on TikTok in which two women went to Old Navy and noted that the clothing was a little rugged, to say the least. “We're at Old Navy, and we're pretty sure that they've got some recession predictors out here, so I'm gonna show you what we're talking about,” she said before pointing out that a frock was giving her Hunger Games vibes.

@zoezoezoezand

Old Navy wants us back in the factories y’all #oldnavy #recessioncore #recessionindicator #recession

“I know what you're thinking, those little pants aren't that bad, and they're not. I actually think they're kinda cute,” she said. “But what do they make you think of? Right, a sailor or perhaps Rosie the Riveter. They're trying to get us prepared to get back out to work.”

Is the U.S. headed for a recession in 2025?

It’s unclear whether the U.S. is headed for a recession because so much of it is dependent on how far President Trump goes with his trade war. A month ago, the chances of the U.S. going into recession were "very high," according to Steve Blitz, managing director of global macro strategies and chief U.S. economist at Global Data. Since, tensions have cooled and the U.S. and China have signaled a willingness to negotiate trade terms, which could prevent a high-tariff stalemate from halting economic activity between the two superpowers.

So, in this time of economic uncertainty, it’s probably best to keep those nails short and save the money you would give to your local nail salon. Plus, colorful coffin nails don’t look great when you're wearing an oatmeal-colored Hunger Games frock.

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One very simple thing we can all do to bring jobs back to the United States? Sign me up.

This holiday season, if you're buying gifts for people, you might have to endure, at some point ... ahem. This:


GIF is from "South Park."

Holiday shopping can be a grind. But even though you're busy, there's an admirable reason to stop and think for a moment about what you're buying.

A lot of what you see in the mall or online is made in other countries, often in subpar working conditions. But you have a choice.

If we try to find just a few more American-made items, it can mean so much for people in this country.

Jobs. Employment. Wages for your neighbors.

One of the reasons the recession was so hard to rebound from is that we've lost so many of the good-paying jobs to outsourcing — that is, sending jobs overseas. When that happens, other jobs go with them.

It's not just the widget-makers who lose their jobs. The surrounding communities do, as well.

The local grocer, and hairstylist, and pub, and restaurants, and lawyers, and dentists ... all kinds of jobs disappear when factories close and move overseas.

Many of the white-collar jobs that support manufacturing also go.

Here's a short piece of the video below that illustrates it in the form of a menacing magnet, sucking up all the good jobs. "Magnet-zilla," if you will.

GIFs from Million Jobs Project/YouTube.

I've lived in Michigan for over 25 years, and when auto suppliers or even automakers close their doors, this is exactly the effect.

When jobs move overseas, the surrounding neighborhoods and communities are drained of their economic lifeblood.

Here's an example from Detroit's Southwest side:


Delray neighborhood, Southwest Detroit. In 1930, this area had 23,000 residents. In 2010? 2,300. Womp womp. Image by Notorious4life/Wikimedia Commons.

"OK, smart guy, what do you propose to do about that?"

It turns out it's not that hard to make a difference. It could be as simple as buying one more American-made item for every hundred purchases you make. Just one.

Yes, it really is that simple.

The folks from the Million Jobs Project, an organization trying to raise awareness about this concept, have consulted with economists who say that all it takes to get jobs going again is for each of us to spend 5% more on American-made goods. When you fit that into your holiday shopping, that likely amounts to just one gift.

Where can you find American-made goods?

The website for the Million Jobs Project has a list of goods still made here.

Here's how you can make a difference, as explained in the video:

"Out of 100 purchases you make, maybe 20 of those are already made in the U.S., and all you need to do is buy one more American made thing. That's 5%. Just one more thing."

Not much to it.

I'm in. You?


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How a shoe repair shop bouncing back from tragedy can be a model for a new economy.

True
CNBC's The Profit

Ronda Morrison runs a shoe repair shop in Detroit. It's a family business dating back over 60 years.

And with a name like "House of Morrison Shoe Repair," they obviously want it to stay in the family. That's where Ronda's 25-year-old nephew Keenon came in.

Ronda and Keenon Morrison. Image via New Economy Initiative/Detroit Lives!/Vimeo.

Keenon had worked with Ronda in House of Morrison since he was a kid, learning the ropes to one day run the business, as his grandfather and aunt had done before him.

All GIFs via New Economy Initiative/Detroit Lives!/Vimeo.

But tragedy struck the family, and House of Morrison's future took a turn.

On the July 4, 2014 holiday weekend, Keenon and his 16-year-old brother Kalen died in a car accident. Reeling from the loss, Ronda began to lose her will to keep running the family business.

"My plans went totally down the drain with his death," Ronda told the Detroit Free Press. "When that happened, the House of Morrison's fate was on the chopping block."

Ronda pushed on, deciding that getting back to work might help her cope. And it turned out her timing was perfect.

Before the accident, she'd applied for a $10,000 small business grant with the Detroit New Economy Initiative (NEI). Amid the grief over the loss of her nephews, she had completely forgotten about the application.

But two days after Ronda returned to work, she got a letter.

She took it as a sign that House of Morrison was meant to persevere.

With the money, Ronda can do more than keep the business open. She can help others learn the trade.

The grant gives her a chance to do more of what her father always wanted for House of Morrison. "I'm going to do exactly what my father did," she says. "Open his door to train people out of the community."

Their proposal included launching an apprentice program for members of their community struggling to find work, investing in business software that will help them be more efficient, and opening new locations once they've built up their customer base.

Small businesses like House of Morrison are working to rebuild Detroit through people-centered enterprise.

In 1950, Detroit, a manufacturing powerhouse, was the richest city per capita in the United States. As people flocked to job opportunities in the Motor City, the population swelled to over 1.8 million.

Detroit in 1942. Photo by Arthur Siegel, U.S. Office of War Information/Wikimedia Commons.

But free trade gave companies a way to boost their profits by moving manufacturing operations to countries with cheaper labor and fewer regulations, putting millions of American workers out of work.

And Detroit was in the middle of it all.

The city saw an exodus as the jobless became economic refugees in new cities.

In 2010, the population had shriveled to just over 700,000. And in 2013, Detroit became the largest American city to declare bankruptcy.

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images.

Since then, Detroit has become a canvas for creative ideas to spur urban renewal.

And groups like NEI are helping by funding small businesses, like House of Morrison, that "represent the innovation and ingenuity of Detroit's small business market."

As the country continues to bounce back from the Great Recession, we should look to Detroit for ways to do it that go beyond the conventional economics that brought the city and the country to their knees in the first place.

Watch NEI's profile of House of Morrison:

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Is the economy as bad as most Americans think? New figures tell an interesting story.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released employment statistics for October 2015.

37 states added jobs and unemployment rates fell in 40. That's good news, right?

Job seekers wait in line for a chance to apply for a job on a massive urban development project in Miami. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images.

And if you're a glass-half-full type, here's something else you'll be happy to hear:

25 states have reached pre-recession unemployment rates.

It's been eight years since the recession started. 8.7 million jobs were lost before the recovery began. Now, we're halfway back to where we were before the sh*t hit the fan.

Building a new economy means transforming the world.
And that's the work of optimists.

It's a long-overdue benchmark, though perhaps we should have expected that. This was, after all, the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Click on a state to see its unemployment rate as of October 2015:

Click on a state to see the percent change in its unemployment rate since the beginning of the recession:

The Economic Policy Institute calls this a "bittersweet milestone" because it means we still have a ways to go.

It's important to note that what we've been dealing with isn't just a jobs crisis — it's a plague of inequality that needs more fundamental fixes, says William Greider:

"At some point, it will become obvious that our economy will not truly recover until American capitalism is refashioned, stripped of its self-aggrandizing excesses and made to serve the interests of society rather than the other way around."

Still, with some estimates finding that 7 in 10 Americans feel pretty crappy about the economy, reaching this halfway point is a moment worth lifting up.

President Obama shakes hands with former Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor after signing the JOBS Act into law. Photo by Joshua Roberts/Getty Images.

68 consecutive months of job growth — the longest streak on record — ain't nothin' to sneeze at. Plus, the Obama administration has managed to crank up the jobs machine exactly where his opponents say they want it: the private sector.

Politically, that's pretty impressive. But it's been argued that the recovery would be stronger if we put at least as much attention on the public sector. According to EPI:

"Our genuinely pressing spending problem is a decline in spending on public investments relative to our needs, which can reduce future economic growth and contribute to growing inequality."

We were in a deep hole, and we're still digging ourselves out. Steadying the labor market is a big part of that.

When we can peek over the edge, perhaps we'll finally be able to reimagine how things work. In the meanwhile, let's remember to celebrate what wins we can. Building a new economy means transforming the world. And that's the work of optimists.

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