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economics

A UPS driver on a phone call.

Certain professions have an inside look at the economy because they’re on the ground floor and see things change firsthand. For example, the advertising business knows that a recession is coming six months ahead of time, and realtors often get a good idea of how the economy is changing before the shock hits everyone else.

Delivery drivers are another group of people who can get a good idea of how the average person is doing. They have more packages to deliver when the economy is doing well and fewer when things take a turn for the worse. That’s why a TikTok by UPS driver Donate McCauley (@dontaymccauley) has so many views. After delivering Christmas packages, he thinks things are going well for most people at the end of 2024.

“I thought everybody was broke. I thought we were trending towards a recession, and y’all been complaining all year about finances, and y'all say that until Christmas,” the UPS driver said in a video with over 100,000 views.

@dontaymccauley

credit card debt going crazy. #ups #peakseason #Texas #foryoupage

“I see y'all actually do got money. And y'all making us pay, for every house got, like, 3, 4 packages. I'm loaded up,” McCauley continued. “Every day I'm going out with 400 packages on this truck, and y'all killing us, man, give us a break. But I thought you ain't have no money, though?”

Was the U.S. economy good or bad in 2024?

The post received many comments; some said they are having difficulty getting by this year, while others say they are doing pretty well these days. It’s another example of the lukewarm way that people have viewed the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic subsided.

“Broke as in it costing me a whole helluva lot more to live than it should. I will always have money for Christmas one way or another,” Lisa Marie wrote. “We’re using After Pay. I did LOL,” Juanita added.

“I have been saying this ALL YEAR. Every restaurant, every tourist attraction, special event, and retail store is PACKED most of the time in my small ‘poor’ city,” SteelersGirl wrote. “I said this to my husband a few weeks ago. Everywhere I go, people are buying stuff. Car dealership was packed last week, too. The economy seems ok,” Wiat What wrote.

Another delivery driver chimed in, and she shared McCauley's sentiment. “USPS here. I have been saying this for the last year,” ChicagoGirl wrote.

ups truck, ups, package delivery, brown truck, ups truck parked, delivery truck A parked UPS truck.via Mike Mozart/Flickr

Did Americans spend more in 2024 on Christmas?

The confused delivery driver who says that people are saying one thing but spending in another tracks a pre-election poll. A survey taken in September 2024 found that 62% of respondents said the economy was weak, while 38% said it was strong.

Regardless of how individuals feel about the economy, the numbers don’t lie. 2024 was a strong holiday season for retailers. Visa says that spending is up this holiday season 4.8% over 2023. "This holiday shopping season, we’re seeing increasing consumer confidence as people sought out in-store experiences – and went online – to purchase gifts and celebrate the holidays with friends and family,” Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa, said in a statement. “This spending growth demonstrates the adaptability of both consumers and retailers and the overall strength of the economy.”


What will Christmas spending be like in 2025?

This year's Christmas season is expected to be less robust than last year's. Inflation, tighter credit lines, and tariff pressures mean that, according to Zeta, there will be a 27% drop in American shoppers looking to spend $1,000 or more during the holiday season. There has also been a 2% increase in those who say that they will spend less than $100 (34% up from 32%). The bottom line is that consumers will be more deliberate about their spending this holiday season, and more people will be seeking discounts.

This article originally appeared last year and was updated.

Photo by Maxim Hopman on Unsplash

The Sam Vimes "Boots" Theory of Socioeconomic Unfairness explains one way the rich get richer.

Any time discussions of wealth and poverty come up, people inevitably start talking about boots. The standard phrase that usually gets thrown around is "pull yourself up by your bootstraps," which is shorthand for "work harder and don't ask for or expect help." (The fact that the phrase was originally used sarcastically because pulling oneself up by one's bootstraps is physically impossible is rarely acknowledged, but c'est la vie.)

The idea that people who build wealth are able to do so because they individually work harder than poor people is baked into the American consciousness and wrapped up in the ideal of the American dream. A different take on boots and building wealth, however, paints a more accurate picture of what it takes to get out of poverty.

 boots, poverty, economic inequalityA boots story shows why it can be so hard to climb out of poverty. Giphy by DurangoBoots

Author Terry Pratchett is no longer with us, but his writing lives on and is occasionally shared on his official social media accounts. In 2022, his Twitter page shared the "Sam Vimes 'Boots' Theory of Socioeconomic Unfairness" from Pratchett's 1993 book "Men At Arms." This boots theory explains that one reason the rich are able to get richer is because they are able to spend less money.

If that sounds confusing, read on:

Pratchett wrote:

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

boots, work boots, economic inequality, rich get richer, climbing out of povertyA good pair of work boots will save you money in the long run, but only if you can afford them in the first place.Photo credit: Canva

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."

In other words, people who have the money to spend a little more upfront often end up spending less in the long run. A $50 pair of boots that last five years essentially cost you $10 a year. But if you can only afford $10 upfront for a pair of boots that last six months, that's what you buy—and you end up paying twice as much over a five-year period.

There are so many areas in which this principle applies when you're poor. Buying in bulk saves you money over the long run, but you have to be able to afford the bulk cost up front. A reliable car that doesn't require regular repairs will cost more than a beater, but if the beater is all you can afford, that's what you're stuck with. You'll likely spend the same or more over time than if you'd bought a newer/higher quality car, but without the capital (or the credit rating) to begin with, you don't have much choice.

buying a car, used car, new car, economic inequalityMore reliable cars cost more up front.Giphy GIF by LSD

People who can afford larger down payments pay lower interest rates, saving them money both immediately and in the long run. People who can afford to buy more can spend more with credit cards, pay off the balances, build up good credit and qualify for lower interest rate loans.

There are lots of good financial decisions and strategies one can utilize if one has the ability to build up some cash. But if you are living paycheck to paycheck, you can't.

Climbing the financial ladder requires getting to the bottom rung first. Those who started off anywhere on the ladder can make all kinds of pronouncements about how to climb it—good, sound advice that really does work if you're already on the ladder. But for people living in poverty, the bottom rung is just out of reach, and the walls you have to climb to get to it are slippery. It's expensive to be poor.

poverty, wealth, climbing a ladder, getting out of povertyIt's hard to climb out of poverty when you can't reach the ladder. Photo credit: Canva

When people talk about how hard it is to climb out of poverty, this is a big part of what they mean. Ladder-climbing advice is useless if you can't actually get to the ladder. And yet, far too many people decry offering people assistance that might help them reach the ladder so they can start taking advantage of all that great financial advice. Why? Perhaps because they were born somewhere on the ladder—even if it was the bottom rung—and aren't aware that there are people for whom the ladder is out of reach. Or perhaps they're unaware of how expensive it is to be poor and how the costs of poverty keep people stuck in the pit. Hopefully, this theory will help more people understand and sympathize with the reality of being poor.

Money makes money, yes, but having money also saves you money. The more money you have, the more wealth you're able to build not only because you have extra money to save, but also because you can buy higher quality things that last, therefore spending less in the long run.

Thanks, Terry Pratchett, for the simple explanation.

This story originally appeared three years ago.

Joy

Man uses the shoe aisle to explain a troubling economic trend in middle-class American life

"The thing is, most people don’t want longevity anymore. They want new."

Remember things being built to last?

It’s been proven that over the past few years, Americans have been dealing with shrinkflation, where food companies reduce the sizes of their products while the price remains the same at the grocery store. You see this in fast food restaurants when you pick up a burger and feel like your hand has grown a few inches, and at the supermarket when you buy a box of cookies, it weighs less than it did a few weeks ago. Companies use this strategy when they think you’ll be less likely to notice a dip in quantity than a hike in the price.

Another big trend in retail is fast fashion. People are buying cheaper garments made from low-quality materials. These products last about as long as the trend, so people throw them away and buy the next hot thing. This can be a real problem because fast fashion harms the environment and leads to exploitative labor practices.

A TikToker named Tom (@SideMoneyTom), popular for making videos about consumer products, recently went viral for a video where he called out shoe manufacturers for dropping their quality while keeping prices high. “So many of you guys want to shoot the messenger, but look, it's not my fault shoes are made out of Styrofoam and oil now,” Tom says in a TikTok with over 528,000 views. “It's literally every shoe you look at now. It's not even just the cheap ones. I can find hundred dollar plus pairs of shoes all day long with glue squeezing out of their Styrofoam cracks.”

@sidemoneytom

Replying to @Oscar Magaña shoes are done #fyp #shoes #foryou

Tom notes that recently, shoes have been made with foam soles instead of rubber. Both have pros and cons. Foam is a little more comfortable, but rubber lasts a lot longer. Rubber shoes keep shape and support over time and are much more durable. Conversely, foam shoes compress over time, losing their support and comfort. When companies sell cheaper shoes that wear out more quickly, they make much more money because you must keep replacing them.

In the video, Tom adds that many companies that used to have shoes made with rubber heels, such as Carhartt and Timberland, have switched to foam. This is an interesting choice for brands that pride themselves on selling durable products.

Cora Harrington, a writer and lingerie expert, says that companies aren't entirely to blame. Americans don’t want to pay higher prices. “People don’t exactly want to pay more for all that stuff,” Harrington told Vox. "So what has to happen if everything is more expensive and the customers still want to pay the same price, something has to be cut and that’s often going to be the quality of the garment.”

“There is an entire generation of consumers at this point that doesn’t actually know what high-quality clothing feels like and looks like,” Harrington continues. “It gets easier, I think, for consumers to just not know any better.”

@sidemoneytom

Replying to @donkles #shoes #fyp #sketchers #nike

Many commenters have noticed the decline in shoe quality and praised Tom for pointing it out. "I am so happy I’m not the only one who is baffled by shoes being made of styrofoam and then being upcharged for them," one commenter wrote. "When shoes started being named some version of 'Air Light Cloud float,' my thought was it was because they went from quality rubber to cheap foam and less materials,” another commenter added.

Tom believes the decline in shoe quality is an example of a more significant trend affecting American consumers' products: quality is decreasing while prices remain the same. “The quality of everything is going to hell, and the prices are going up," Tom concludes his video. "The problem is, so many of us have just become used to it that we keep buying it, and we basically allow them to dumb down the quality of everything. Everything in our lives. These shoes are just the tip of the iceberg. Start thinking about it in your life. What are you gonna allow to be garbage quality?

This article originally appeared in March.

A quiz reveals some holes in Americans' financial literacy.

Financial literacy is always important, but in uncertain economic times, it's vital. The financial world is complex and multi-faceted, and there's no exact gauge of what you need to know in order to be considered informed. There are, however, some financial fundamentals that everyone needs to understand on a basic level in order to avoid making catastrophic money decisions and to be able to follow what's happening with the economy on a larger scale.

Unfortunately, many Americans have never taken an economics class and aren't well-versed in things like inflation, investments, interest rates, and other economic realities. To be fair, economics can be confusing even when you try to learn, but without understanding some basic concepts, it can make a huge difference in your financial wellbeing.

financial literacy, money, finances, economics, economyMany Americans need to increase their financial literacy.Photo credit: Canva

The non-profit FINRA Investor Education Foundation surveyed 25,500 adult Americans and asked them to take a seven-question financial knowledge quiz to test their financial literacy. The results were a bit concerning, as only a small fraction of quiz-takers answered all seven questions correctly.

Here are the questions they asked:

1. Suppose you have $100 in a savings account earning 2 percent interest a year. After five years, how much would you have?

More than $102

Exactly $102

Less than $102

Don't Know

2. Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account is 1 percent a year and inflation is 2 percent a year. After one year, would the money in the account buy more than it does today, exactly the same or less than today?

3. If interest rates rise, what will typically happen to bond prices? Rise, fall, stay the same, or is there no relationship?

4.True or false: A 15-year mortgage typically requires higher monthly payments than a 30-year mortgage but the total interest over the life of the loan will be less.

5. True or false: Buying a single company's stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.

6. Suppose you owe $1,000 on a loan and the interest rate you are charged is 20% per year compounded annually. If you didn't pay anything off, at this interest rate, how many years would it take for the amount you owe to double?

a) 0 to 2 years

b) 2 to 4 years

c) 5 to 9 years

d) 10 or more years

e) Don't know

financial literacy, math literacy, economics, finances, money managementSome financial literacy is just math literacy—understanding percentages and probabilities. Photo credit: Canva

7. Which of the following indicates the highest probability of getting a particular disease?

a) There is a one-in-twenty chance of getting the disease

b) 2% of the population will get the disease

c) 25 out of every 1,000 people will get the disease

d) Don't know

"Don't know" was an option for each question, and the average correct score across the Americans who took the quiz was 3.3 out of 7. Nationwide, 27% of people who took the quiz got the right answers on at least five of the questions, and only 4% aced all seven questions.

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

Which states fared the best and worst? Here are the 10 top states by percentage of survey respondents that correctly answered five or more of the quiz question:

1. Minnesota (34.78%)

2. Wisconsin (34.46%)

3. District of Columbia (34.41%)

4. Colorado (33.89%)

5. Wyoming (33.85%)

6. Washington (32.54%)

7. Vermont (32.34%)

8. North Dakota (32.00%)

9. Oregon (31.86%)

10 Kansas (31.44%)

And here are the bottom 5 by the same metric:

New Mexico (23.2%)

West Virginia (21.4%)

Alabama (20.2%)

Mississippi (19.2%)

Louisiana (18.1%)

One piece of good news: Americans' understanding of inflation has increased significantly since the last time FINRA did a similar survey in 2021. (Or maybe that's not such good news, as it's likely a better understanding that came from experiencing an inflation crisis, but learning is learning.)

"Overall, the findings show that knowledge of everyday financial concepts remains a challenge for many Americans. The wide disparities in financial knowledge across states demonstrate that more work is required to empower all Americans with the skills and tools to make informed financial decisions and safeguard their investments,” said Gerri Walsh, President of the FINRA Foundation. "The increase in the number of respondents who correctly answered the question about the impact of inflation on savings is an encouraging sign, likely reflecting the impact of lived experience as well as increased focus on the topic. However, continued efforts are needed to ensure all Americans fully understand the effects of economic factors on their personal finances."

Not only does a lack of financial knowledge have the potential to impact people's personal finances, such as getting into credit card debt trouble or choosing unwise investments, but not understanding how things like inflation and the relationship between interest rates and investment markets can lead people to vote for politicians with questionable economic policies. How can you believe a politician will be good for the economy if you don't understand what factors contribute to keeping the economy stable and strong?

You can take the quiz yourself here and see how your knowledge compares.