When the economy is about to enter a recession, specific industries get the warning signs first. One of the big ones is advertising. When companies believe that a downturn is on the horizon, ad agencies often feel it first when their clients start pulling back their budgets. Another industry that can foretell a recession is the world of fashion. One of the significant changes the industry sees is when people's fashion sense changes from flamboyant to functional.

Which fashion trends show the U.S. is headed for a recession?

Bryce Gruber, a veteran commerce director for major North American publishers, believes that a recession is coming because of the changes she’s seen in advertising and women’s fashion. She predicts a recession is on the way because women are opting for shorter nails after long, glamorous nails have been all the rage.

"Do you know what's going to be trending by the end of the year? And I know it for a fact because the ad budgets were already spent and I sat in on a meeting about it last week,” Gruber said in a video with over six million views. “So the number one thing that I can see, and let me know if you agree, if you're already seeing it. Short nails. Short nails. Okay. That, like, big coffin, any look that everyone was obsessed with, the, like, long French manicures that were having a moment, like, a few months ago, that stuff is done.”

She added that she learned this from a meeting with a publisher who is “one of the biggest in North America and controls a lot of the information that is distributed to women between 25 and 45," she said. “Every major nail and beauty company, I mean the L'Oréals, the Revlons, all of them, they have already committed massive amounts of ad spend to this sort of short but nicely kept nail trend. You're going to see it everywhere, and honestly, I'm happy about it because it's easier and I can tell you if I can wash my dishes, I can do all the things with reasonable nails."

A woman's hand with short nails. via Canva/Photos

The commenters saw the new trend as an indicator of the coming recession. "It’s called 'I can’t afford to get my nails done' trend," one commenter joked. "Aka recession indicator bc people can’t afford to spend $70+ on a full set anymore," another added.

The video is reminiscent of a recent viral hit on TikTok in which two women went to Old Navy and noted that the clothing was a little rugged, to say the least. “We're at Old Navy, and we're pretty sure that they've got some recession predictors out here, so I'm gonna show you what we're talking about,” she said before pointing out that a frock was giving her Hunger Games vibes.

“I know what you're thinking, those little pants aren't that bad, and they're not. I actually think they're kinda cute,” she said. “But what do they make you think of? Right, a sailor or perhaps Rosie the Riveter. They're trying to get us prepared to get back out to work.”

Is the U.S. headed for a recession in 2025?

It’s unclear whether the U.S. is headed for a recession because so much of it is dependent on how far President Trump goes with his trade war. A month ago, the chances of the U.S. going into recession were "very high," according to Steve Blitz, managing director of global macro strategies and chief U.S. economist at Global Data. Since, tensions have cooled and the U.S. and China have signaled a willingness to negotiate trade terms, which could prevent a high-tariff stalemate from halting economic activity between the two superpowers.

So, in this time of economic uncertainty, it’s probably best to keep those nails short and save the money you would give to your local nail salon. Plus, colorful coffin nails don’t look great when you're wearing an oatmeal-colored Hunger Games frock.