upworthy
Add Upworthy to your Google News feed.
Google News Button
Wellness

People are comparing COVID-19 deaths to the flu. Here's why it doesn't work.

People are comparing COVID-19 deaths to the flu. Here's why it doesn't work.
Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash

As countries around the world pay rapt attention to the rising number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths from COVID-19, some confusion about the mathematics of it all keep floating around.

I've seen countless comments from people who say things like:

"The virus has only killed 20,000 people. The seasonal flu kills 60,000 people each year and we don't shut the country down for that!"

"Far more Americans die of flu/cancer/heart disease/etc. than will die from COVID-19 this year. Why aren't we shutting down the economy for those things?"

The idea that the coronavirus isn't markedly different or worse than the seasonal flu got an early hold in some people's consciousness when the virus first emerged. Part of the problem is that the virality and mortality of the virus hasn't been totally clear. Even Dr. Fauci and colleagues wrote an editorial published February 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine stating that the coronavirus death rates "may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza."

However, with a novel virus, things change quickly and experts' knowledge and understanding change along with it. As we saw numbers begin to emerge from around the world, it became clear that this virus is more contagious and far deadlier than the seasonal flu. Dr. Fauci stated in an interview with Trevor Noah on March 26 that the coronavirus was actually at least twice as contagious and ten times as deadly as the seasonal flu. Though death rates vary widely by country so far, and we won't have a clear picture of that rate for quite some time, it's clear that this isn't your average flu.

Additionally, normal flu seasons vary in severity, but the flu is largely a known quantity. We know there will be flu strains, and epidemiologists construct a vaccine each year based on their most informed guess as to which strains will be circulating the most. So we have vaccines and we have treatments to lessen flu severity, such as Tamiflu. And since flu-related deaths happen fairly evenly throughout flu season, our hospital system doesn't get overwhelmed by them.

Let's hold that thought about overwhelmed hospitals while we look at the other comment about various causes of death.

Yes, based on the numbers of deaths we've seen so far, more Americans die of things other than coronavirus each year. But there are some big "buts" here. Most of those causes of death are not communicable diseases. If shutting down the country for a period of time was guaranteed to save people's lives from heart disease or cancer, I'm sure we'd do that. But we are already doing what we can to try to reduce deaths from things like heart disease, cancer, car accidents, and the seasonal flu.

A viral pandemic gone unchecked is an entirely different beast. We have been watching both the case numbers and the death numbers rise dramatically, even after enacting social distancing and locking down the country.

This chart shows a daily visualization of the increase in COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. compared to the average daily deaths from various causes from March 1 to April 18, 2020. GIve it 10 seconds or so, since the virus deaths start off slow, but then really start really taking off after March 20.

By April 8, you can see that the virus's daily death toll overtakes every other cause of death in America.

This is called exponential growth. I've seen people say that coronavirus has killed 20,000 Americans in four months, making it sound like it was an average of 5,000 per month, but that's not how this works. In January, we had no deaths. In February, just a few. By March 26, we had 1,000. Less than 3 weeks later, we're at around 22,000. That's what we mean by exponential growth. No other cause of death does that.

And again, this is with mitigation measures in place for the past month. Imagine what it would look like if we'd kept up business as usual during the past few weeks and let the virus spread unchecked. This kind of exponential growth in deaths is exactly why nations around the globe have shut down businesses and enacted social distancing guidelines.

This is not the seasonal flu. We don't have a vaccine for this. We don't have a cure for this. We don't even have a sure-fire, reliable treatment for this.

The problem is that people see that numbers are not exploding as much as some models indicated they would and think "Oh, this has all been overblown!" They're only seeing some overwhelmed hospitals in select areas and think that means all of the widespread preparations and shutdowns weren't necessary. But that notion ignores the fact that the initial models provided an estimate for what would happen if we didn't shut the country down, which was an absolutely catastrophic outcome with millions of deaths. Without these "extreme" measures, the death toll would be far higher, and more hospitals would be out of beds and ventilators. And it's hard to predict beforehand where a big outbreak might spring up.

And we're not even close to out of the woods yet. Our case and death numbers are still climbing, though experts indicate that we may be at a peak where we might plateau for a while.

But the bottom line is that this virus is not like something we've seen before. The death numbers we've seen so far can't be compared to anything else. And we need to keep on doing what we're doing to keep those exponential numbers under control.





From Your Site Articles
Related Articles Around the Web
coronavirus
Pop Culture

'Wicked' author says one line in 'The Wizard of Oz' inspired Elphaba and Glinda's backstory

Gregory Maguire says he "fell down to the ground" laughing when the idea hit him.

Public domain

The two witches in "The Wizard of Oz" clearly had a history together.

Have you ever watched a movie or read a book or listened to a piece of music and wondered, "How did they come up with that idea?" The creative process is so enigmatic even artists themselves don't always know where their ideas come from, so It's a treat when we get to hear the genesis of a brilliant idea straight from the horse's mouth. If you've watched "Wicked" and wondered where the idea for the friendship between Elphaba (the Wicked Witch) and Glinda (the Good Witch) came from, the author of the book has shared the precise moment it came to him.

The hit movie "Wicked" is based on the 20-year-old hit stage musical, which is based on the novel "Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West" written by Gregory Maguire. While the musical is a simplified version of the 1995 book, the basic storyline—the origin story of the two witches from "The Wizard of Oz"—lies at the heart of both. In an interview with BBC, Maguire explained how Elphaba and Glinda's friendship popped into his head.

 

Maguire was visiting Beatrix Potter's farm in Cumbria, England, and thinking about "The Wizard of Oz," which he had loved as a child and thought could be an interesting basis for a story about evil.

"I thought 'alright, what do we know about 'The Wizard of Oz' from our memories,'" he said. "We have the house falling on the witch. What do we know about that witch? All we know about that witch is that she has feet. So I began to think about Glinda and the Wicked Witch of the West…

 glinda, elphaba, wicked,  In "Wicked," the two Oz witches met as students at Shiz University.  Giphy GIF by Wicked 

"There is one scene in the 1939 film where Billie Burke [Glinda the Good Witch] comes down looking all pink and fluffy, and Margaret Hamilton [the Wicked Witch of the West] is all crawed and crabbed and she says something like, 'I might have known you'd be behind this, Glinda!' This was my memory, and I thought, now why is she using Glinda's first name? They have known each other. Maybe they've known each other for a long time. Maybe they went to college together. And I fell down onto the ground in the Lake District laughing at the thought that they had gone to college together."

In "Wicked," Glinda and the Wicked Witch, Elphaba, meet as students at Shiz University, a school of wizardry. They get placed as roommates, loathe each other at first, but eventually become best friends. The story grows a lot more complicated from there (and the novel goes darker than the stage play), but it's the character development of the two witches and their relationship with one another that force us to examine our ideas about good and evil.

  - YouTube  youtu.be  

 

Maguire also shared with the Denver Center for Performing Arts what had inspired him to use the "Wizard of Oz" characters in the first place.

"I was living in London in the early 1990’s during the start of the Gulf War. I was interested to see how my own blood temperature chilled at reading a headline in the usually cautious British newspaper, the Times of London: 'Sadaam Hussein: The New Hitler?' I caught myself ready to have a fully formed political opinion about the Gulf War and the necessity of action against Sadaam Hussein on the basis of how that headline made me feel. The use of the word Hitler – what a word! What it evokes! When a few months later several young schoolboys kidnapped and killed a toddler, the British press paid much attention to the nature of the crime. I became interested in the nature of evil, and whether one really could be born bad. I considered briefly writing a novel about Hitler but discarded the notion due to my general discomfort with the reality of those times. But when I realized that nobody had ever written about the second most evil character in our collective American subconscious, the Wicked Witch of the West, I thought I had experienced a small moment of inspiration. Everybody in America knows who the Wicked Witch of the West is, but nobody really knows anything about her. There is more to her than meets the eye."

 wizard of oz, wicked witch of the west The Wicked Witch of the West has a story of her own.  Giphy  

Authors and artists—and their ideas—help hold a mirror up to humanity for us to see and reflect on who we are, and "Wicked" is one of those stories that makes us take a hard look at what we're seeing in that mirror. Thanks, Gregory Maguire, for launching us on a collective journey that not only entertains but has the potential to change how we see one another.

This story originally appeared last year.

From Your Site Articles
wicked
Pop CultureMovies
Community

30 cheap and delicious meals frugal people swear they never get sick of

"I could eat one every day of my life if I allowed it to happen."

Image via Canva

Frugal people share cheap meals they love.

Groceries are a major expense these days. And grocery prices are continuing to go up in 2025, according to the USDA. Still, making meals at home versus going out to eat is cheaper, and a big way to save money. But getting creative with low-cost ingredients can be a hang-up.

In an online community of frugal people, member samdaz712 posed the question to fellow savers: "What’s the cheapest meal you actually enjoy eating regularly?"

They continued, "We all have that one budget meal that somehow never gets old. For me, it’s rice, eggs, and frozen mixed veggies with soy sauce and chili flakes. Costs next to nothing, takes 10 minutes, and I actually look forward to it."

The post wrapped up with a call-out for others' favorite and frugal meals. "Curious what everyone else’s go-to cheap meals are not the I’ll suffer through this to save money kind, but the ones you genuinely like and would still eat even if you weren’t budgeting. Always looking for new ideas that don’t break the bank," they added.

Frugal people happily shared their cheap (and yummy) go-to meals. Here are 30 cheap meals that they never get sick of.

"PB&J sandwiches. I could eat one every day of my life if I allowed it to happen. If I'm feeling fancy, I'll make a PB, banana, and honey sandwich. Then I'll pan toast with a generous amount of butter on each side until the bread is golden brown and the PB starts to melt. It's so decadent yet so cheap." - Kom4K

"Fried egg sandwich." - Major9000

"Every week-ish we make pinto beans, smash em up into a refried situation, melt some cheese, spread them on toasted torta bread with avocado. Then use leftovers in your eggs the next day or make burritos for lunch. You can never go wrong with a pot of beans." - BoardNo1459

"A pot of pinto beans with a link of kielbasa sausage and corn bread...Absolute baller." - Bigram03

"'Hobo-potatoes,' diced potatoes, onions, salt and pepper, mixed up in a bag of foil with oil and left to cook in the coals of a camp fire. Goes great with any protein and has more potassium per serving than bananas." - BlaqueNight

"Pasta and butter. Sometimes with grated parmesan." - RuthlessLidia

"Quesadilla." - babe_ruthless3

"Toast." - FrauAmarylis

"Pan fried tofu slabs braised in a pan with chopped kimchi, green onion, kimchi liquid or rice vinegar, soy sauce, sesame oil, bit of water to make it saucy, a tsp of sugar seems to help it meld together. Takes 10-12 min. Served over short grain rice. Optional toppings, toasted sesame seeds, chopped cilantro, sliced green onion. Edit: this was from The NY Times food, from Sue Li for exact proportions." - LavaPoppyJax

"Costco’s $1.50 hot dog and drink." - StarWolf478

"Rice and eggs for me too. It can be enjoyed in so many ways! My favorite is a crispy egg that’s still yolky on sushi rice with seaweed, salt and sesame oil." - theyrejusttoys

"For me it's an egg foo young - type dish! Stir raw eggs into leftover cooked vegetables (and optional protein, like leftover chicken or whatever you have). Ladle the mixture into a hot pan with a little oil, and fry up into patties. Serve over rice, and top with a drizzle of some kind of Asian sauce and a little hot pepper. You can look up a recipe for Egg Foo Young sauce, but that's not necessary; it tastes great with almost any kind of Asian sauce, or simply soy sauce. The cooked patties last for days in the refrigerator and can be reheated. Bonus: This is a fantastic way to use up any small bits of leftover veggies or meat. And if I have wilted vegetables that are in danger of spoiling, I just chop them up and quickly sauté them together, and freeze them in small containers. Now I have lots of veggies ready to go to make delicious egg foo young." - TIL_eulenspiegel

"For me, it’s instant noodles with a soft-boiled egg, some greens, and a splash of sesame oil. Dirt cheap but feels like comfort food every time!" - Wajid-H-Wajid

"Baked potatoes. So cheap, so good." - killyergawds

"Over-night oats. Eat it every morning before work." - Non_Binary_Goddess

"Nachos for the win." - HappyBear4Ever

"Rice and lentils cooked together." - RichCoast7186

"Potatoes, baked beans, fried eggs. Potatoes, corned beef, fried eggs. Rice (Mexican, Spanish, or Asian), beans, fried eggs. Cottage cheese, bran, frozen blueberries, milk. Home made salsa or pico de gallo on anything. Ground beef, rice, tomato and whatever else I have around. Rotisserie chicken, use the carcass to make soup with rice. Use the chicken that you can get off with tortillas and verde/enchilada sauce. With rice and beans. My advice, get really good at cooking rice, beans, and potatoes. Make sure you have a good selection of spices. Throw whatever extra money you have at whatever meats you can." - himthatspeaks

"Sweet potato black bean burrito a la moosewood. The most basic version is just a sweet potato and a can of black beans (but much better with an upgrade of caramelized onions and some cumin)." - Upbeat-Poetry7672

"Sardines on toast with a over easy egg." - Gandi1200

"Green bean casserole! Takes 10mins and lasts me all week for dinner and lunch." - Kihakiru

"Pan fried Spam, sunny side up egg, over rice. Furikake seasoning to taste." - Cajunsalmon

"I don't make meals I don't enjoy eating, but these are easy, quick, healthy and yummy. 1/2 rice , 1/2 red lentils + cubed veggies (frozen or fresh) eventually crushed tomatoes or coconut milk. Baked savory oats : shredded veggies +oats and eventually eggs or cheese or tomato sauce. Dhal sooooooo delicious. Split pea soup." - sohereiamacrazyalien


From Your Site Articles
cheap meals
CommunityJoy
Joy

Dad shares the hilarious conversations he has with 5-year-old daughter and folks are cracking up

"Why do people congratulate you when Mom is making the baby?

via James Breakwell/X

All parents have had similar convos with thier kiddos.

Raising kids is tough, but there's a lot of laughs along the way. Especially when actual conversations start, as kids begin trying to make sense out of the world around them, ask questions, and test mommy and daddy's resolve.

Back in 2018, comedy writer and children's book author James Breakwell, with four daughters who were all under the age of eight at the time, shared their hilarious conversations on X. From these tweets, it looks like comedy runs in the family. Here's a sampling of some Breakwell's funniest kid-inspired tweets.

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

While Breakwell's 7-year-old wasn't as heavily featured, when she was quoted, the sarcasm was palpable. Which makes sense, considering that kiddos begin understanding this mechanism around that age.

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Kids really do say the darnedest things, and we love them for it. It one of the many, many ways then bring so much joy to the world. It almost makes up for the headaches and sleepless nights, doesn't it.

This article originally appeared seven years ago.

From Your Site Articles
kids
JoyHumor
Joy

Author Ray Bradbury noticed a specific trait that made Walt Disney tremendously successful

This is how creative giants understand one another.

via Alan Light/Wikimedia Commons and Wikimedia Commons

Walt Disney and Ray Bradbury.

The world’s greatest innovators think and behave differently from us mere mortals. They have a unique view of the world and are dedicated to their craft in ways that most would deem obsessive. But without that type of dedication, Steve Jobs could never have given us the Macintosh, Michael Jordan would never have been able to fly, and Michelangelo would have never painted the Sistine Chapel.

It’s hard for the average person to understand what makes a cultural innovator tick, which is why an interview with groundbreaking author Ray Bradbury on Walt Disney is so inspiring. It lifts the veil on what great artists see in one another that most of us can’t. Bradbury is the acclaimed author of classics such as Fahrenheit 451 and The Martian Chronicles, who was a friend of Disney and worked with his legendary company as a creative consultant.

What did Ray Bradbury think of Walt Disney?

In a 2004 interview, Bradbury explained where the incredibly ambitious and creative Disney got his drive and determination.


“If there’s any secret at all, it’s because Walt, like myself, is not an optimist but an optimal behaviorist. Which means that every day of your life, if you behave well, you begin to feel well,” Bradbury said. “So that’s not false, that’s real. You get your work done every day, and at the end of a week, a month, a year, you’ll turn around and say, hey, look what I did. So you feel good. That’s real optimism. Optimal behavior.”

“He could look back at the end of each year and see his behavior, and it made him want to go on. A lot of people are pessimists because they’ve never done anything,” Bradbury continued. “If you go to bed every night having not done anything, you’re going to wake up unhappy, aren’t you? So the answer to that is do something every day. Be busy, for God’s sake, be busy.”

 walt disney, disney world, mickey mouse, disney company, disney theme parks, A statue of Walt Disney and Mickey Mouse.via Paul Beattie/Flickr

What is a behavioral optimist?

Although “behavioral optimist” isn’t an official psychological term, it’s one that Bradbury often used to describe himself. “I’ve learned that by doing things, things get done. I’m not an optimist; I’m an optimal behaviorist. We ensure the future by doing it,” he said. “Optimists and pessimists are blind. But I’m not either. I’m an optimal behaviorist. In other words, I behave at the top of my lungs every day. There’s no guarantee, but you’re going to have a heck of a lot of fun. You’ll come to the end of your life with the secure knowledge that you tried everything.”

There are just two critical things in life, he said, “Being in love with your wife or husband and being in love with your work. And then everything’s fine.”

If you’ve always dreamed of living a life like Walt Disney, using your imagination to entertain and uplift humanity, you can start by looking at life in the same way. Big goals can often seem too lofty when we think about the finished product. Instead, take small, consistent steps every day towards achieving your goal. Writing a 300-page book may seem like too much work, but if you write a page a day, you’ll have a book before the end of the year. The key is to stay focused and consistent, just like Uncle Walt.

From Your Site Articles
walt disney
JoyArt
Family

Her adoptive mother secretly wrote to her biological mother for 17 years. She had no idea.

What an amazingly kind gesture.

@aliciamaeholloway/TikTok

What an amazingly kind gesture.

Closed adoptions—meaning adoptions with no contact between the biological parents and adoptive families—offer privacy, protection and emotional closure. However, it can understandably still be incredibly difficult for biological mothers to instantly and drastically remove their biological child from their life, even if they know they are doing what's best.

This was the case for Alicia Mae Holloway’s biological mom. In a video shared to her TikTok account, the dancer and television personality shared that her adoptive mother, Evelyn, “saw how hard it was” for her birth mom to give Holloway up for adoption. So Evelyn came up with a kind gesture that Holloway dubbed “the sweetest thing.”

“She was like, ‘okay, I’ll make you a deal. Every six months, I’ll send you a picture of Alicia and a little update in a written card of how she’s doing.’”

 
 @aliciamaeholloway She watched me grow up my whole life but never I just never knew it🥹🤍 #adoption #mom #adoptedmom #birthmomsoftiktok #birthmom #adopted #adoptedchild #adoptedcheck #adoptionjourney #biologicalmother #biologicalmom #bestmom #bestmomever #morgantownwv #morgantown #wv #westvirginia #momisasuperhero ♬ Sad Emotional Piano - DS Productions 
 
 

Getting those biannual letters out wasn’t as simple as dropping them off in the mail either.

As Holloway explained, she had been conceived during an affair her birth mother—a white woman, married to a white man, with three white children—had with a Black man. Not only could Holloway’s birth mom not afford a fourth kid, she feared what her “racist” family might do upon seeing a biracial baby, and told everyone that it was a stillborn.

All this to say, Holloway’s birth mom didn’t want the letters arriving at her home, potentially risking anyone from her family seeing it. Evelyn would therefore need to send the letters to a friend’s house.

But sure enough, Evelyn kept good on that promise. For 17 years, Holloways' birth mom got to celebrate milestones in her daughter’s life. Meanwhile, Holloway had no idea this exchange was happening.

 
 @aliciamaeholloway She did what all mothers should do: Whatever is best for their child🥺🤍 #adoption #adopted #adoptionstory #morgantownwv #pittsburgh #birthmom #biomom #biologicalmother #biologicalmom #adoptedcheck #adoptionjourney #adoptionstories #adoptionrocks #adopteesoftiktok ♬ Sad Scene BGM Piano Instrument(313618) - HomeMadeGarbage 
 
 

“I get chills when I think about how she was watching me grow up and I had no idea,” Holloway told Today. “She knew I was a dancer and that I was doing beauty pageants and that I was a good kid.”

Holloway added that just before her 18th birthday, she was made aware of her adoptive mom’s kind gesture. And they even went to meet Holloway’s birth mom, an event Holloway that noted was in many ways more emotional for her two moms than it was for her, recalling that both women “had a long, long, long embrace and were both bawling their eyes out.”

As for Holloway, she told Today that she feels no ill will towards her biological mom. Rather, she sees the decision as “an act of love," that set her up for a truly “amazing life.” At the end of their meeting, after the important questions pertaining to family health history and whatnot, all she had to say was “thank you.”

And from the looks of it, she is as happy as ever living life with her adopted parents, who honestly could pass for her biological parents any day.

 
 @aliciamaeholloway I look EXACTLY like them🥹🫶🏽Even more now that im an adult!!! #adopted #adoption #interracialcouple #greenscreen #interraciallove #interracialmarriage #whitemomblackdad ♬ My Little Girl - Tim McGraw 
 
 

It's interesting to think about how none of us know our full life story, how many things both bigs and small remain mysteries. But when we are lucky enough to discover hidden truths, we unlock yet another part of ourselves.

This article originally appeared last year.

From Your Site Articles
motherhood
FamilyModern Families
Trending Stories