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Business editor says this low-key women's fashion shift is a huge recession warning

The subtle signs are everywhere.

via Canva/Photos

Two women wearing bright colors.

When the economy is about to enter a recession, specific industries get the warning signs first. One of the big ones is advertising. When companies believe that a downturn is on the horizon, ad agencies often feel it first when their clients start pulling back their budgets. Another industry that can foretell a recession is the world of fashion. One of the significant changes the industry sees is when people's fashion sense changes from flamboyant to functional.

Which fashion trends show the U.S. is headed for a recession?

Bryce Gruber, a veteran commerce director for major North American publishers, believes that a recession is coming because of the changes she’s seen in advertising and women’s fashion. She predicts a recession is on the way because women are opting for shorter nails after long, glamorous nails have been all the rage.

@brycegruber

Honestly I’m happy about this one because the price of maintaining long nails has gotten way out of control 💅

"Do you know what's going to be trending by the end of the year? And I know it for a fact because the ad budgets were already spent and I sat in on a meeting about it last week,” Gruber said in a video with over six million views. “So the number one thing that I can see, and let me know if you agree, if you're already seeing it. Short nails. Short nails. Okay. That, like, big coffin, any look that everyone was obsessed with, the, like, long French manicures that were having a moment, like, a few months ago, that stuff is done.”

She added that she learned this from a meeting with a publisher who is “one of the biggest in North America and controls a lot of the information that is distributed to women between 25 and 45," she said. “Every major nail and beauty company, I mean the L'Oréals, the Revlons, all of them, they have already committed massive amounts of ad spend to this sort of short but nicely kept nail trend. You're going to see it everywhere, and honestly, I'm happy about it because it's easier and I can tell you if I can wash my dishes, I can do all the things with reasonable nails."

nails, short nails, pricess nails, woman's fashion, manicureA woman's hand with short nails. via Canva/Photos

The commenters saw the new trend as an indicator of the coming recession. "It’s called 'I can’t afford to get my nails done' trend," one commenter joked. "Aka recession indicator bc people can’t afford to spend $70+ on a full set anymore," another added.

The video is reminiscent of a recent viral hit on TikTok in which two women went to Old Navy and noted that the clothing was a little rugged, to say the least. “We're at Old Navy, and we're pretty sure that they've got some recession predictors out here, so I'm gonna show you what we're talking about,” she said before pointing out that a frock was giving her Hunger Games vibes.

@zoezoezoezand

Old Navy wants us back in the factories y’all #oldnavy #recessioncore #recessionindicator #recession

“I know what you're thinking, those little pants aren't that bad, and they're not. I actually think they're kinda cute,” she said. “But what do they make you think of? Right, a sailor or perhaps Rosie the Riveter. They're trying to get us prepared to get back out to work.”

Is the U.S. headed for a recession in 2025?

It’s unclear whether the U.S. is headed for a recession because so much of it is dependent on how far President Trump goes with his trade war. A month ago, the chances of the U.S. going into recession were "very high," according to Steve Blitz, managing director of global macro strategies and chief U.S. economist at Global Data. Since, tensions have cooled and the U.S. and China have signaled a willingness to negotiate trade terms, which could prevent a high-tariff stalemate from halting economic activity between the two superpowers.

So, in this time of economic uncertainty, it’s probably best to keep those nails short and save the money you would give to your local nail salon. Plus, colorful coffin nails don’t look great when you're wearing an oatmeal-colored Hunger Games frock.

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Heroes

In the Trump era, the DiCaprio Foundation is stepping up its climate efforts. Big time.

With seemingly no one in the White House steering the U.S. into an environmentally sustainable future, who's going to take the wheel?

Leonardo DiCaprio has an idea who.

Speaking at Yale University on Sept. 19, the actor and activist announced his foundation is giving a whopping $20 million in grants to over 100 eco-groups dedicated to fighting climate change, protecting indigenous rights, and wildlife conservation efforts, among other issues.

It's the largest portfolio of environmental grants ever given by the DiCaprio Foundation, according to the group, which chose to unveil the figure at John Kerry's Kerry Initiative climate change conference.





"These grantees are active on the ground, protecting our oceans, forests, and endangered species for future generations — and tackling the urgent, existential challenges of climate change," DiCaprio said.

Thank you John Kerry for hosting today's #YaleClimateConference. We must all work together to combat #climatechange....

Posted by Leonardo DiCaprio on Tuesday, September 19, 2017

The DiCaprio Foundation, which raises money in large part from high-profile fundraising events, didn't beat around the bush either: Washington's indifference toward crucial environmental issues is making matters worse.

While President Donald Trump and the Republican-led Congress weren't mentioned by name, their inaction were certainly part of the discussion.

“This round of grants comes at a critical time," explained Terry Tamminen, the foundation's CEO. "With a lack of political leadership and continued evidence that climate change is growing worse with record-breaking heatwaves and storms, we believe we need to do as much as we can now, before it is too late.”

DiCaprio has spoken out against Trump's dismissal of climate change before.

In June, shortly after the president announced plans for the U.S. to leave the Paris climate accord — a global agreement between nearly every nation to drastically slash carbon emissions — DiCaprio slammed the unpopular move, calling it a "careless decision."

“Our future on this planet is now more at risk than ever before," he wrote in a statement. "For Americans and those in the world community looking for strong leadership on climate issues, this action is deeply discouraging."

Leonardo DiCaprio Schools Trump on Climate Change

As Donald Trump––aka our Climate Denier in Chief––prepares to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement, Leonardo DiCaprio reminds us why that would be so fucked up:

Posted by Fusion on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

With help from groups like DiCaprio's, however, Americans are stepping up to the plate — with or without their president.

The U.S. might meet its carbon reduction goals outlined in the Paris agreement despite Trump's lack of support.

An initiative led by Michael Bloomberg, for example, has united dozens of mayors, governors, businesses, and universities in remaining committed to the Obama administration's Paris pledge to slash America's carbon output by 26% from its 2005 levels by the year 2025.

It could, in a sense, nullify any formal withdrawal from the accord.

“The bulk of the decisions which drive U.S. climate action in the aggregate are made by cities, states, businesses, and civil society,” Bloomberg wrote in a letter to Antonio Guterres. “Collectively, these actors remain committed to the Paris accord.”

There's ways for you to get involved and stay committed too.

Consider supporting one of the many environmental groups that will receive grants from the DiCaprio Foundation or nonprofits like the Sierra Club or NRDC to make real change when it comes to climate action.

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Trump's election was a major wake-up call for Maggie Gyllenhaal. Here's what changed.

A late-night TV interview is a guide to recognizing privilege and putting it to good use.

Actress Maggie Gyllenhaal stopped by "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert" to discuss her new show, "The Deuce," but audiences got a lot more than that.

"The Deuce" is an upcoming HBO drama in which Gyllenhaal plays a sex worker. The show grapples with a number of uncomfortable topics, misogyny and power structures among them. Gyllenhaal's conversation with Colbert eventually turned to — as so much seems to these days — politics.

"I think when we were making the show, it was last summer, it was the election," she said. "Sometimes we'd be watching the debates on our lunch break. All of these conversations were bubbling under everything. We were shooting when Trump was saying, 'I can grab women's pussies if I want to.'"

GIFs from "The Late Show With Stephen Colbert"/YouTube.

Trump's election caused Gyllenhaal to reflect on where we actually are in society and how it compares to where we thought we were.

A man who, as Gyllenhaal alluded to, bragged about grabbing women's genitals would receive tens of millions of votes. A man who had been accused by 15 women of sexual assault or harassment would become president. A man who allegedly walked in on a teenage girls' dressing room would hold the highest office in the land. A man who once said it was OK to refer to his daughter as a "piece of ass" would be the next leader of the free world.

Whatever ideas anyone had about misogyny, racism, xenophobia, homophobia, transphobia, and Islamophobia being relics of America's past went out the window with Trump's election. And for Gyllenhaal, it was a wake-up call.

It's foolish to think any of those things had truly been eradicated from our society, but for some, it was easy enough to pretend these problems didn't exist.

Gyllenhaal didn't want to be complicit in America's culture of misogyny any longer, so she made a conscious decision not to let things slide anymore.

As any woman can surely attest, sexism and misogyny are everywhere. They are forced to pick battles and begrudgingly accept sexist behavior as part of working, living, existing in this world.

But as Trump's election demonstrated, putting up with the small acts of sexism can reinforce a dark, dangerous, and pervasive culture.

Realizing her privilege as a well-off Hollywood actress, Gyllenhaal could just as easily continue to let the little things slide. But she didn't want to do that anymore.

For her sake, for the sake of our country, and for the sake of our future, it's imperative to push back against injustice in all its forms.

Gyllenhaal declared that she's "not gonna take it anymore," and while she didn't exactly elaborate on what she meant by that, it's a good start.

Those of us in positions where we can fight back against bigotry and sexism should do so because it's not just about us as individuals, but us as a collective society.

Watch Gyllenhaal's interview below (she starts talking about Trump and misogyny around 7:30 into the clip).

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These dinosaurs may have pulled off the most hilarious protest of President Trump yet.

The list of groups lining up to protest the Trump administration's policy agenda just keeps growing. Women. Immigrants and their advocates. LGBTQ Americans and their allies. Yemeni deli owners. Disabled Medicaid recipients.

And now ... dinosaurs.

On Wednesday, a large group of T. rexes — seriously, not making this up — marched on Washington to demand Congress overrule the president and continue funding national service programs.

A press release described the protest as featuring a "record number of dinosaurs," a probably technically correct statement that, nonetheless, doesn't really do the actual event justice.

Take a look:

"While dinosaurs are fun — national service extinction is a serious matter," Shirley Sagawa, CEO of Service Year Alliance, the group that organized the dino-march, said in an emailed statement.

Trump's proposed fiscal year 2018 budget would dramatically cut funding to a variety of long-standing aid organizations. Under the proposal, AmeriCorps, Senior Corps, and Vista would be eliminated. The Peace Corps would also see its funding slashed.

Eliminating these programs could cause a lot of harm to human beings. The Peace Corps operates in over 60 countries on six continents.  According to AmeriCorps, the program's volunteers assisted in over 21,000 sites last year, responding to natural disasters, providing free tax preparation assistance to senior citizens, and teaching anti-drug classes in schools where opioid abuse is rampant.

Despite their passionate embrace of the cause, it is unlikely dinosaurs would be affected by the cuts (though the humans inside the inflatable suits certainly might be).

Sagawa hopes the protest will convince the Senate to reduce or eliminate the cuts when they consider the budget this month.

Photo by Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images.

"We encourage them to listen to the folks who gathered outside the Capitol and expand national service instead of letting it go extinct," she said.

If dozens of hulking, bloodthirsty carnivores can't make the case, it's likely no one can.

Correction 9/1/2017: The article misstated the name of the group that organized the protest. It is Service Year Alliance, not National Service Alliance.

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