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Wellness

The reassuring math explaining COVID hospitalization percentages for vaccinated people

The reassuring math explaining COVID hospitalization percentages for vaccinated people

As if dealing with an ever-changing understanding of the novel coronavirus over the past year and a half hasn't been enough, we've also had to try to understand the math behind the data analysis, which for some of us (hi, English major here) is a nightmare.

It's vitally important that we understand these numbers, though, because misinformation peddlers are using them to push misconceptions about vaccines. And even though the math isn't actually that complicated, those of us who aren't particularly mathematically inclined may read headlines like "50% of COVID patients in XX hospital are fully vaccinated" and find ourselves alarmed. Wasn't the vaccine supposed to prevent hospitalizations? If half of the people in the hospital are vaccinated, doesn't that mean the vaccine makes no difference?

Well, no. That's not at all what it means, and here's why. It's all about the denominators.

On a super basic level: 2 = 2, but 2 out of 20 is not the same as 2 out of 80. If 4 people are hospitalized, 2 vaccinated and 2 not vaccinated, in an area with an 80% vaccination rate, it's not a meaningful measurement to say that half of the hospitalizations are in vaccinated people. Your chances of hospitalization with the vaccination are significantly lower because of the denominator.

Biostatistician Lucy D'Agostino McGowan simplified why the percent vaccinated in hospitalizations numbers aren't as scary as they sound with some helpful visuals in a Twitter thread.



The director of the Maine CDC, Nirav D. Shah, gave an even more thorough explanation for those who actually want to wade a little deeper into the statistical waters.

He wrote:

"It's important to consider the full picture when interpreting data on things like the % of people fully vaccinated who are hospitalized with #COVID19, or the fact that 74% of the cases in the P-town outbreak were fully vaccinated.

I have seen folks express concern upon learning, for example, that 45% of people hospitalized w/COVID19 are vaccinated.

"But I thought the vaccine keeps you out of the hospital? Is this evidence that vaccines aren't working?" No, it is not. I'll walk through why here.

First, some basic assumptions. There are two Worlds, each with 1M people. And we'll consider the same infectious disease affecting each World, with the parameters below.

There is also a vaccine, with the effectiveness parameters noted below. These could all be changed.In World 1, 50% of the population has been vaccinated against the disease. Out of the 1M people, there are 30,000 infections and 2525 hospitalizations.

Among vaccinated folks, 25 end up in the hospital. The other 2500 hospitalized are UNvaccinated.World 2 is different: 90% of the population is vaccinated.

Here, there are only 14,000 cases. And only 545 people are hospitalized in total.

BUT, 45 of the hospitalized are vaccinated! Compare that with only 25 vaccinated folks in the hospital in World 1.What is going on?

How could it be that, in a World with 90% of the population vaccinated, 20 *more* vaccinated people are hospitalized with the disease (45 vs. 25?)? Is the vaccine not working in World 2?

It's important to compare World 1 and World 2 side by side.

First, note that the case rate in World 2 (90% vaccinated) is far lower than in World 1 (50%). The vaccine is working.

Second, the hospitalization RATE is also far lower in World 2: 545/million vs. 2525/mil.But because there are simply more vaccinated people in World 2, something that affects them at the same rate as others (hospitalization) will generate more cases, numerically.

Indeed, the % of all hospitalized who are fully vaccinated is HIGHER in World 2 than in World 1.In World 2 (90%), 8.25% of all those in the hospital are vaccinated. But in World 1 (50%), it's only 1%!

This is NOT evidence that the vaccines are ineffective. It is a function of the fact that there are simply more vaccinated folks in World 2 relative to unvaccinated.

The question to ask yourself is this: which world would you rather be in?

For that, you would look to the hospitalization rate: 545 vs. 2525/million. World 2, with its higher vaccination rate, is preferable, given that it experiences 1980 fewer hospitalizations. In World 1, fewer people are vaccinated, so their rate of hospitalization is just lower.

Where else does this (common) phenomenon occur?

For a stark example, consider this: what % of skydiving accidents occur in people who were wearing a parachute? Probably 100%.

Are parachutes not effective? They are. But the baseline rate of parachute wearing among those who sky dive is 100%.

Another example: what percentage of fatal car accidents occur in people who were wearing a seat belt? It's about 52%.

Does that mean the effectiveness of seat belts is a coin flip? No, the baseline rate matters. Seat belt usage is around 85%. As with so many things, where you end up depends on the baseline rate of where you started.

Lots of vaccinated folks are being hospitalized with COVID because there are a growing number of vaccinated folks. But the RATE of total hospitalizations is going down. That's good. Similarly, in P-town, 74% (346) of the cases were among vaccinated folks.

But there, what percentage of folks were vaccinated vs. unvaccinated? If the baseline rate of vaccinated was sky high, then this finding is entirely predictable. This is a common theme in epidemiology and statistics. Once you know to look for it, it jumps out all over the place. But without the context around background rates, denominators, etc., it's easy to scare yourself and make incorrect decisions.

Another example: imagine World 3, also with 1M people. 999,999 are vaccinated.

Two cases of COVID occur. One in the unvaccinated person. The other in a vaccinated person.

So 50% of new COVID cases are in the vaccinated. Really? Yes, but deceiving. Denominators matter."

Denominators matter. Even those of us who aren't mathematicians or statisticians can understand that, but we do need media reports to be clear about it; otherwise, we end up with people believing that the vaccines don't do much.

We also need to remember that data is always being gathered and that our understanding of this virus, the vaccines, and how best to balance safety measures and other needs will continue to evolve. The constant shifts are hard, but such is the nature of a novel viral pandemic, and it looks like we're still going to be in it for a while.


Sustainability

Scientists tested 3 popular bottled water brands for nanoplastics using new tech, and yikes

The results were alarming—an average of 240,000 nanoplastics per 1 liter bottle—but what does it mean for our health?

Suzy Hazelwood/Canva

Columbia University researchers tested bottled water for nanoplastics and found hundreds of thousands of them.

Evian, Fiji, Voss, SmartWater, Aquafina, Dasani—it's impressive how many brands we have for something humans have been consuming for millennia. Despite years of studies showing that bottled water is no safer to drink than tap water, Americans are more consuming more bottled water than ever, to the tune of billions of dollars in bottled water sales.

People cite convenience and taste in addition to perceived safety for reasons they prefer bottle to tap, but the fear factor surrounding tap water is still a driving force. It doesn't help when emergencies like floods cause tap water contamination or when investigations reveal issues with lead pipes in some communities, but municipal water supplies are tested regularly, and in the vast majority of the U.S., you can safely grab a glass of water from a tap.


And now, a new study on nanoplastics found in three popular bottled water brands is throwing more data into the bottled vs. tap water choice

Researchers from Columbia University used a new laser-guided technology to detect nanoplastics that had previously evaded detection due to their miniscule size.

The new technology can detect, count and analyze and chemical structure of nanoparticles, and they found seven different major types of plastic: polyamide, polypropylene, polyethylene, polymethyl methacrylate, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, and polyethylene terephthalate.

In contrast to a 2018 study that found around 300 plastic particles in an average liter of bottled water, the study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in January of 2024 found 240,000 nanoplastic particles per liter bottle on average between the three brands studied. (The name of the brands were not indicated in the study.)

As opposed to microplastics, nanoplastics are too small to be seen by microscope. Their size is exactly why experts are concerned about them, as they are small enough to invade human cells and potentially disrupt cellular processes.

“Micro and nanoplastics have been found in the human placenta at this point. They’ve been found in human lung tissues. They’ve been found in human feces; they’ve been found in human blood,” study coauthor Phoebe Stapleton, associate professor of pharmacology and toxicology at Rutgers University’s Ernest Mario School of Pharmacy told CNN Health,

We know that nanoplastics are making their way into our bodies. We just don't have enough research yet on what that means for our health, and we still have more questions than answers. How many nanoplastics does it take to do damage and/or cause disease? What kinds of damage or disease might they cause? Is whatever effect they might have cumulative? We simply don't have answers to these questions yet.

That's not to say there's no cause for concern.

We do know that certain levels of microplastic exposure have been shown to adversely affect the viability of cells. Nanoplastics are even smaller—does that mean they are more likely to cause cellular damage? Science is still working that out.

According to Dr. Sara Benedé of the Spanish National Research Council’s Institute of Food Science Research, it's not just the plastics themselves that might cause damage, but what they may bring along with them. “[Microparticles and nanoparticles] have the ability to bind all kinds of compounds when they come into contact with fluids, thus acting as carriers of all kinds of substances including environmental pollutants, toxins, antibiotics, or microorganisms,” Dr. Benedé told Medical News Today.

water plastic bottle on seashorePhoto by Brian Yurasits on Unsplash

Where is this plastic in water coming from?

This study focused on bottled water, which is almost always packaged in plastic. The filters used to filter the water before bottling are also frequently made from plastic.

Is it possible that some of these nanoplastics were already present in the water from their original sources? Again, research is always evolving on this front, but microplastics have been detected in lakes, streams and other freshwater sources, so it's not a big stretch to imagine that nanoplastics may be making their way into freshwater ecosystems as well. However, microplastics are found at much higher levels in bottled water than tap water, so it's also not a stretch to assume that most of the nanoplastics are likely coming from the bottling process and packaging rather than from freshwater sources.

assorted bottled waters on shelfPhoto by Giuseppe Famiani on Unsplash

The reality is, though, we simply don't know yet.

“Based on other studies we expected most of the microplastics in bottled water would come from leakage of the plastic bottle itself, which is typically made of PET (polyethylene terephthalate) plastic,” lead author Naixin Qian, a doctoral student in chemistry at Columbia University, told CNN Health. “However, we found there’s actually many diverse types of plastics in a bottle of water, and that different plastic types have different size distributions. The PET particles were larger, while others were down to 200 nanometers, which is much, much smaller.”

We need to drink water, and we need to drink safe water. At this point, we have plenty of environmental reasons for avoiding bottled water unless absolutely necessary and opting for tap water instead. Even if there's still more research to be done, the presence of hundreds of thousands of nanoplastics in bottled water might just be another reason to make the switch.


This article originally appeared on 2.2.24

Motherhood

Mom brilliantly teaches empathy and kindness in viral morning hair videos with daughter

It's hard to make more time for your kids, but you can make the most of the time you get.

Carmen Veal/Instagram

The lives of parents with young kids are busy, busy, busy.

You have a lot of grand notions of what you'd like to teach your kids, the wisdom you'd like to pass down.

But in reality you spend most of your time trying to figure out what they'll eat for dinner, doing dishes, and folding laundry.

When are you supposed to find the time to actually, you know, parent?

One mom has been turning morning hair time into quality time, and posting it online for everyone to enjoy and learn from.

Carmen Veal has been posting a series of videos on her Instagram called "Mornings with Maddie."

On the surface, the videos show a mother doing her daughter's hair — brushing, braiding, you name it. There are styling tips for curly hair and lots of celebration of Maddie's biracial-ness.

But the reason people keep flocking to these videos is so much deeper.

The sweet moments feature Carmen doing her daughter's hair for the day while they just... talk! There's so much joy and affection in these moments that you can't help but cheer up just watching the two of them interact.

Carmen sometimes slips in a lesson or two, or a theme to discuss. In one video, Carmen and Maddie talk about the difference between being nice and being kind.

"[Nice] means to be nice by talking about nice things," declares Maddie while 'kind' means... "um to hug people."

Mom gives some more examples, but let's face it, Maddie nailed it.

Carmen Veal/Instagram

In another video, Carmen talks with Maddie about their newfound viral fame — after one of their morning videos racked up a whopping 2 million views.

Maddie's face lights up when her mom tells her how many people admire her.

"Our videos inspire people to be nicer, well, not nicer. Nicer is not as good as kind, you know that, right?" Carmen says. "So it inspires people to be kinder to themselves and other people."

As for how Carmen herself feels about the massive response?

"The response to the videos has been overwhelming in the best way possible," Carmen says. "People from all over the world have reached out to express how they’ve found joy, comfort, and inspiration in our morning moments. It’s been humbling to see how something so personal has had such a wide-reaching impact.

"At the heart of Mornings with Maddie is a desire to show that parenting with kindness and intentionality can create deep connections. I hope viewers take away a sense of peace and inspiration, knowing that small, consistent acts of love and care can make a world of difference."

"Mornings with Maddie" makes me think of how special the seemingly-mundane day to day moments with our kids really are.

The regular "Instagram highlights" of Disney World vacations and pumpkin patches and other special experiences are memorable, but it's the smaller stuff that's even more meaningful.

Specifically, positive rituals and routines (like the morning hair-do) help kids develop self-regulation skills, a strong sense of self, and better mental health in the long term. It's the repetition that drives that positive change over time.

"The joy that families experience inside of rituals together can leave an 'emotional residue' that children keep with them to cope during stressful times," writes Dr. Erika Bocknek of Zero to Thrive. "When times are uncertain, and children experience worry or sadness, rituals provide the internal sense that they are not alone and have a balance in their lives of positive and negative experiences."

The Instagram views and media coverage will taper off, but Maddie will undoubtedly remember these moments with her mom forever. And millions of people will have been inspired to make the most of the short time we do get with our kids.

Culture

Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard open up about being attracted to other people - and why that's OK

For many couples, bringing up such a sensitive topic can cause some major jealousy.

via The Walt Disney Company / Flickr

One of the ways to tell if you're in a healthy relationship is whether you and your partner are free to talk about other people you find attractive. For many couples, bringing up such a sensitive topic can cause some major jealousy.

Of course, there's a healthy way to approach such a potentially dangerous topic.

Telling your partner you find someone else attractive shouldn't be about making them feel jealous. It's probably also best that if you're attracted to a coworker, friend, or their sibling, that you keep it to yourself.


But, being open about your sexual feelings, can be a way to spice things up in the bedroom and to let your partner know what you like.

Actress and mental health advocate Kristen Bell admits that she and her husband, actor Dax Shepard, have learned how to be open about their attraction to other people. The couple believes that being able to talk about such taboo topics without making each other jealous is a great way to preserve their relationship.

"He can tell me someone he finds attractive, female or male, 'cause he pauses the Olympics on a lot of runners, but it doesn't make me feel like he's going to leave me for that person because I'm not allowing my self-esteem to be affected," she explained.

Bell believes that it's completely normal and healthy for people in monogamous relationships to be attracted to other people.

"I know there are people on planet Earth that are more attractive than me, and well, we're not dead. I have to acknowledge we're monkeys," Bell said. As an attractive, famous couple working in Hollywood, there is extra pressure for them to be able to handle their jealousy.

The couple has also done a good job at accepting the fact that Bell is the primary bread-winner in the family. Studies show men have higher levels of stress if their wives earn more than 40% of their home's combined income.

About a third of women in the U.S. make more than their husbands.

While Shepard has had a successful career, acting in films such as "Idiocracy" and "Without a Paddle," Bell has starred in some major hits including, "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" and the "Bad Moms" films.

She's also made a pretty penny voicing Princess Anna in Disney's "Frozen" franchise.

"I think I've always out-earned him," Bell said about their careers. "I got a lot of opportunity, you're sharing in it, we're able to provide for a ton of our family members who may or may not be struggling," she continued, as if addressing Shepard. "I don't look at it like, 'This is mine and this is yours.' I'm like, 'This is ours. Get over it.'"

Bell believes that the couple's ability to get over petty jealousy is one way to make sure their unique relationship stands the test of time.

"Do you want to be on the porch with someone when you're 80?" Bell asked. "We both want that."


This article originally appeared on 5.6.21

Family

People kept telling me to watch 'Bluey.' I still was not prepared.

Some adults say it's healing their inner child, but there's something in the popular Australian kids' show for everyone.

"Bluey" is popular with all ages, despite being aimed at kids.

I have a confession to make. I'm 48 years old, my youngest child is in high school and I can't stop watching "Bluey."

For the uninitiated, "Bluey" is a kids' cartoon from Australia aimed at 5 to 7-year-olds. It's been nearly a decade since my household has seen that demographic, so when people kept telling me I should watch "Bluey," my reaction was basically, "Yeah, I've already done my kiddie show time, thankyouverymuch."

Then my almost-15-year-old started watching it just to see what the fuss was about. And as I started tuning in, I saw why people love it so much. I figured it was going to be a wholesome show with some good lessons for kids, and it is.

But it's also laugh-out-loud hilarious.


As I got sucked deeper and deeper down the "Bluey" hole, I also saw why so many adults say the show is healing their inner child. It doesn't just have good lessons for kids; some episodes are a masterclass in creative, engaged, positive parenting. Now I'm hooked, along with the rest of my family of 40-somethings and young adults. We even have favorite episodes that we rewatch, for goodness sake.

So what is it that makes "Bluey" such a beloved show for all ages?

The kid actors are fantastic. Seriously, so darn funny.

The children who play 6-year-old Bluey, her 4-year-old sister, Bingo, and their various cousins and friends are outstanding. Their voices are cute, but they're also top notch comedians.

One of my personal favorite bits on the show is when the kids pretend to be grannies. Here's a clip with Bluey, Bingo and their cousin, Muffin, pretending to be grannies at their neighbor's yard sale.

It gets even funnier when the "grouchy granny" encounters an actual, real-life grouchy granny who wants to buy the granny mobile and haggles with her. (We've watched this episode four times. It only gets funnier.)

The parents teach lessons through imaginative play

The clip below shows how Bandit (Bluey and Bingo's dad) creatively uses a unicorn puppet to drive home the importance of good manners and personal care habits when Bluey won't stop chewing with her mouth open.

Using characters that struggle with whatever a kid needs to learn is a great way to help drive home a lesson. And doing it with silliness and creativity makes the learning process both enjoyable and effective.

Also, the parents' love for each other shines through in the show in adorable ways.

The parents share their own learnings along the way

Bluey episodes are short—the full episode below is less than 7 minutes—and it's amazing how much they can squeeze into them. Here, Bluey's mom teaches Bluey not to compare herself to others by sharing her own comparison story from when Bluey was a baby, which also includes a lesson for the parents who may be watching as well. It also tugs right at the heartstrings at the end.

I'm just consistently amazed at how well the show executes on every level.

It's therapeutic—literally.

For folks with positive childhoods, the show is nostalgic and comforting. For those with tough childhoods, the show can feel healing. And for people who raising their own kids, it can be a resource to help them be better parents.

My colleague (and Licensed Clinical Social Worker) Jacalyn Wetzel says she recommends "Bluey" to clients who are having a hard time with parenting.

"When parents of young children mention that they're struggling with being able to emotionally regulate through their child's tantrums, outside of talking to them about ways children express unmet needs, I often recommend the cartoon 'Bluey,'" she says. "Bluey behaves very much like a typical preschooler, which sometimes means she accidentally pushes buttons or does something wrong. The way her parents interact with her in those moments are great examples of acknowledging a child's emotions and responding with kindness, understanding and age appropriate terms."

The show includes real-life parenting moments that can be hard to navigate, so she encourages parents to watch how the parents interact with Bluey and Bingo. "Parenting doesn't come with a handbook but 'Bluey' is helping those that maybe didn't have the best example of it growing up, and that's special," she says.

It's just a near-perfect show in almost every way. There's even some silly potty humor if that's your jam. (See what I mean? A little something for everyone.)

You can watch full seasons of "Bluey" on Disney + and find clips and some full episodes the "Bluey" YouTube channel.


This article originally appeared on 12.1.23

via @5kids5catssomedogstoo/TikTok

Lynalice Bandy shares what her home looks like after working six 10-hour days and getting no help from her husband.

A viral TikTok video highlights an extreme version of inequality that many wives and mothers in heterosexual relationships face. However, the mom in this story hit her limit and won’t deal with it anymore.

Lynalice Bandy, who goes by @5kids5catssomedogstoo on TikTok, posted a video that showed her home looking like a disaster after she worked six 10-hour days straight while her husband did nothing to help.

Her time-lapse video shows every room in the house completely trashed, with toys, food and laundry scattered everywhere. "Shampoo on the carpets in the girls' room, nail polish all over Nugget covers, hair, and carpet. Scissors were used to cut hair, the down comforter, the mattress cover, and two Nugget covers," wrote the mom.


“I’ve worked six, ten-hour days in a row with only one day off being a sick day,” she captioned the video. “I’d like to pretend I’m not the only person who cleans here, but as you can see…These rooms don’t get much attention when I’m not here.”

@5kids5catssomedogstoo

#divorce #parentingfail #messyhouse #whenwomen #depressionanxiety #clean #satifying

She says her husband’s excuse was that he was focused on doing his schoolwork and couldn’t pay attention to the kids. "Now, that school is out for a break, he doesn't have that excuse anymore," Bandy says, noting that all of his attention has been focused on “the four vehicles in our driveway that he wants to work on continuously.”

In a follow-up video, Bandy announced that she left her husband after the debacle. The original video received over 17,000 comments, many of which were from supportive women.

"You deserve much better, and he deserves to be alone. Much love to you from someone that left that life behind almost 20 yrs ago. You'll get here, too," Angela LaRoche wrote.

"Ma’am, you are nothing short of amazing! Hang in there!" Japanese with Jenny wrote.

"That home is beautiful because of YOU," Hillary added. "You put in so much work, and it is not unseen by me and so many others. But, you DO deserve better. Proud of you."

@5kids5catssomedogstoo

Sounds about right…

Even though Bandy’s experience with her husband is an extreme case of a couple whose domestic duties are way out of balance, it points to a problem that plagues many households. Even though it’s 2023 and families are becoming more equal, women still do significantly more housework than men.

A study utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey found that women 15 years and older spend 5.7 hours daily doing housework and looking after kids and elders. Men in the same age group do an average of 3.6 hours of daily domestic work.

That’s a 37% difference in time spent on household responsibilities.

Further, women who work an average of 35 hours a week spend 4.9 hours a day on household chores and child care, while men who work the same amount spend an average of 3.8 hours.

The comments show that there are a lot of women out there who are frustrated with their husbands for not doing their fair share. Hopefully, this video will encourage more people to speak out about domestic inequality and for more men to step up and do their part.


This article originally appeared on 4.25.23