upworthy

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A UPS driver on a phone call.

Certain professions have an inside look at the economy because they’re on the ground floor and see things change firsthand. For example, the advertising business knows that a recession is coming six months ahead of time, and realtors often get a good idea of how the economy is changing before the shock hits everyone else.

Delivery drivers are another group of people who can get a good idea of how the average person is doing. They have more packages to deliver when the economy is doing well and fewer when things take a turn for the worse. That’s why a TikTok by UPS driver Donate McCauley (@dontaymccauley) has so many views. After delivering Christmas packages, he thinks things are going well for most people at the end of 2024.

“I thought everybody was broke. I thought we were trending towards a recession, and y’all been complaining all year about finances, and y'all say that until Christmas,” the UPS driver said in a video with over 100,000 views.

@dontaymccauley

credit card debt going crazy. #ups #peakseason #Texas #foryoupage

“I see y'all actually do got money. And y'all making us pay, for every house got, like, 3, 4 packages. I'm loaded up,” McCauley continued. “Every day I'm going out with 400 packages on this truck, and y'all killing us, man, give us a break. But I thought you ain't have no money, though?”

Was the U.S. economy good or bad in 2024?

The post received many comments; some said they are having difficulty getting by this year, while others say they are doing pretty well these days. It’s another example of the lukewarm way that people have viewed the U.S. economy since the COVID-19 pandemic subsided.

“Broke as in it costing me a whole helluva lot more to live than it should. I will always have money for Christmas one way or another,” Lisa Marie wrote. “We’re using After Pay. I did LOL,” Juanita added.

“I have been saying this ALL YEAR. Every restaurant, every tourist attraction, special event, and retail store is PACKED most of the time in my small ‘poor’ city,” SteelersGirl wrote. “I said this to my husband a few weeks ago. Everywhere I go, people are buying stuff. Car dealership was packed last week, too. The economy seems ok,” Wiat What wrote.

Another delivery driver chimed in, and she shared McCauley's sentiment. “USPS here. I have been saying this for the last year,” ChicagoGirl wrote.

ups truck, ups, package delivery, brown truck, ups truck parked, delivery truck A parked UPS truck.via Mike Mozart/Flickr

Did Americans spend more in 2024 on Christmas?

The confused delivery driver who says that people are saying one thing but spending in another tracks a pre-election poll. A survey taken in September 2024 found that 62% of respondents said the economy was weak, while 38% said it was strong.

Regardless of how individuals feel about the economy, the numbers don’t lie. 2024 was a strong holiday season for retailers. Visa says that spending is up this holiday season 4.8% over 2023. "This holiday shopping season, we’re seeing increasing consumer confidence as people sought out in-store experiences – and went online – to purchase gifts and celebrate the holidays with friends and family,” Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa, said in a statement. “This spending growth demonstrates the adaptability of both consumers and retailers and the overall strength of the economy.”


What will Christmas spending be like in 2025?

This year's Christmas season is expected to be less robust than last year's. Inflation, tighter credit lines, and tariff pressures mean that, according to Zeta, there will be a 27% drop in American shoppers looking to spend $1,000 or more during the holiday season. There has also been a 2% increase in those who say that they will spend less than $100 (34% up from 32%). The bottom line is that consumers will be more deliberate about their spending this holiday season, and more people will be seeking discounts.

This article originally appeared last year and was updated.

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Jimmy Kimmel asked a 2nd grader to explain trade to Trump. She didn't disappoint.

'Are trade deficits good or bad? They're both, Mr. President.'

Managing global economics isn't for everyone.

It takes levelheadedness, a knack for diplomacy, and a basic understanding of math.


Unfortunately, if the recent tweets by businessman-turned-President Donald Trump are any indication, he may be lacking in all three.

On April 4, Trump tweeted that "when you're already $500 billion DOWN, you can't lose!"

The statement was in regards to the U.S. trade deficit. America's largest deficit, by country, is with China.

In recent weeks, Trump has escalated talks of a trade war with China, slapping a 25% tariff on several Chinese-made products on April 3. China retaliated by imposing its own tariffs on $50 billion-worth of American goods, including pork and soybeans.

Many economists say these moves will inevitably hurt workers in U.S. agricultural and manufacturing sectors — ironically, the same industries Trump vowed to protect.

The scary thing, as Jimmy Kimmel pointed out during the April 5 episode of his show, is that Trump doesn't seem to understand the complexities of trade.

“[Trump] seems to think that if one side has a deficit, that side is losing by $500 billion," Kimmel said, pointing to Trump's tweet. "That's not how trade deficits work."

So, on the off-chance Trump might be tuning in that night, the late night host asked a second-grader named Shiloh to explain the concept of trade deficits to the president.  

It was funny, adorable — and actually really informative, too. Check it out (story continues below):

It's OK — if global trade isn't your forte, I'll break down Shiloh's lesson.

"What is a trade deficit?" she began the video. "It sounds like a bad thing. But really, it's just the difference between how much we buy from another country and how much we sell to that country. So, if we buy more stuff from China than we sell to them, that's a trade deficit."

All GIFs via "Jimmy Kimmel Live!"/YouTube.

"But don't freak out," she assured viewers. "We didn't actually lose anything, because we have all the stuff we bought."

Despite the scary name, deficits can actually be a good thing, she explained — it often indicates a strong national economy and means we have more money on hand to spend.

"But there are problems," as she pointed out.

Trump's more populist, protectionist ideas have some merit. She said, "Some American workers lose their jobs making stuff if we buy that stuff from other countries." Those abroad who end up with those jobs may work under dangerous working conditions and get paid less than U.S. workers would have.

The moral of Shiloh's story?

Trade deficits are complicated. They result in both pros and cons for us in the U.S. And the totality of their effects can't be adequately summed up in a 280-character tweet.

"So, are trade deficits good or bad? They're both, Mr. President," Shiloh concluded. "If you have any other questions, let me know. Good luck."